Leave Sierra Alone

This week, Sierra made a decision that she felt was best for her game. And naturally, this being the internet, it led to a situation where she had to tweet the following:

Now I know you’re not one of those people sending horrific messages - you’re on the more intelligent side (after all, you read The Confessional). And those people are obviously completely out of line.

But there is a heated debate that has raged on this week where Sierra is at the center.

Did Sierra make the right choice?

Sierra’s decision has been analyzed in every way. Some folks say she should have kept Anika and she’d be in a better strategic position between the Gata women and Sam. Some say she made a good decision because she goes from #3 in the Breadwinners alliance to #2 in her three-pack with Sam and Andy.

I’m not taking either side here.

I’m challenging the notion that there is a right answer at all. In fact, I’ll challenge the idea that her decision even matters.

Seriously. Both arguments are completely valid. It wasn’t a clear decision by any means and we could feel that as she went back and forth on the episode. That’s why it’s so fun, and worthwhile, to analyze.

The key, though, is that the decision doesn’t matter. Making it work does.

We often look at strategic decisions as binary: right and wrong. The reality is that every decision could be good or bad and either way, there is work to do that will determine the outcome. Had Sierra taken out Andy, she would have had to win Sam over again and to repair that relationship.

Because Anika is out, Sierra has a different to do list. She has to manage Sam and Andy going into mergatory and also has to find a way to get back into Rachel’s good graces. The success of the move is going to come down to how well she can do those things, not the decision itself.

In fact, by going with the move that she said was better for Sam, she keeps her relationship with Sam strong, which might be more important than making the “right” decision on who to vote out this round. Sometimes it’s not the choice that matters but it’s how your remaining relationships will be affected by the choice.

The decision matters less than the execution before and after making it. The work doesn’t end at the torch snuffing; the success of the vote comes down to the lead up and what comes after.

This is why it’s important to keep fighting in Survivor until your torch gets snuffed. Even if an ally goes home, or if you screw up a move, you can still adapt and execute.

Let’s look at two scenarios.

For one, take Andy. He can’t have felt good after the first tribal council. He lost his frenemy, Jon, and it seemed like he was doomed to go at Gata’s next tribal. But he spent 10 days digging Anika’s grave - as he said - and it paid off. That kind of ability to make an imperfect situation work for him is a valuable skill as he goes forward in the game.

Meanwhile on the Tuku beach, adaptability and execution are going to be key there too. Caroline told us that she wants the five Tukus to be united going into the merge.

And she is absolutely right.

In the New Era, bringing a solid tribal group into the merge is a really good strategy (e.g. the Taku four, the Tika three, the Reba four). Close-knit groups win in Survivor, especially when your alliance is a secret. Five players working together is an incredible idea…

Although, it’s one that is bound to fail here. Gabe and Tiyana are too far apart and gave us no indication that they could make peace.

Caroline has a group of people that don’t want to work together. She has to make her current situation work and adapt to the current dynamics.

If she gets too attached to a Tuku group crushing it after the merge, she’ll be stuck.

The one player the Tukus chose to go home, TK, might have been a better option for Caroline’s specific goal to keep a group together going into a merge. TK is gone, though, so it’s about navigating the future with a group that may not be as solid as she’d want. And if she loses a Tuku, which she will at some point, it’s about making that new reality work.

Just like Sierra, it’s less about who the next is to go, and more about corralling a group that can actually go forward together. Even a solid three of Caroline, Sue, and Gabe, could do serious damage if they’re locked in and aligned on their strategy. That will require flexibility in Caroline’s plan.

At Gata, Sierra, Sam, and Andy, have all shown the strategic chops to do this kind of good work at the merge. It’s about making their position successful, whether they made the optimal decisions in the past or not. If they do it right, this episode won’t be the last time Sierra has a big choice to make and it won’t be the last time she has to make that choice work.

Both of Sierra’s paths could have been successful. Let’s see how she executes on the one she chose.

And for those internet trolls, it’s really not that serious. Leave Sierra alone.

-Kevin

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