Worst is Closer To First

As Gabe walked out of tribal council, I started thinking about how being on the bottom in Survivor’s new era might be better than being on the top. Gabe was seen as a big threat and his life in the game was cut short. Meanwhile, more than half the cast feels like they’ve been hanging on for dear life and our winner is probably in that group.

Every vote after the merge has been a dogpile so far. Sol and Gabe walked out with most of the votes fired their way. In Sol’s case, Genevieve said his name and most people just fell in line. The players are mostly reluctant to really push for a specific target and are happy to just settle with making sure they’re in on the vote even if they’re not in on the plan. It’s like “going along with the house” in Big Brother. With so many players feeling left out, if they can be part of the majority, at least they show others that they’re open to options.

Stephen Fishbach pointed out on the Know-It-Alls this week that a lot of this is because there are not firm alliances. If there were, players could control the flow of information a lot better. As Genevieve described it, it’s a bunch of people who have lied to each other, and everyone is competing for who can give a name out last.

This makes sense because when you loop someone into information that they don’t have, in many cases it helps build your relationship, especially if they feel like they’re on the bottom. In Survivor 47, most of this cast has a path to the end and part of that is because they are all jockeying for the best strategic position and the top/bottom isn’t actually so clear.

The reason that Gabe went home this week might be because Genevieve had a slight edge on Gabe’s position. Both were perceived to be the strategic leaders, the heads, of their respective tribes. By taking out Sol, Genevieve weakened her own Lavo numbers, while leaving Gabe as the leader of a very intimidating four Tukus.

While Genevieve played this right, Kyle may have accelerated his own downfall. He felt like he had to get Gabe out, even if keeping Gabe in the game might have given Kyle a shield for when he doesn’t win immunity. Now, when Kyle loses a challenge, his game is likely going to be as deceased as the bat on his favorite accessory. 

Meanwhile, there is a group of folks left out of votes who seem to be in little-to-no-danger. Andy, Rachel, Sam, and Teeny have all felt at the bottom. They have realized that and seen each other’s poor positioning and come together to be in quite a powerful position. When we talk about jockeying for strategic superiority, the way to turn the game around is to find others with similar interests, and to work together.

Andy was in such a bad position early on that people forgot about him. Rachel, having been left out of Gata and shafted with the Tuku 5 in the split tribal council, has fallen off of people’s radars.

Sam was complaining to Jeff that he was on the bottom this episode. The reality is that he might not have a ton of agency; however, his perceived bottom-ness makes him a vote that a strategic player is going to try to recruit. Sierra leaving while Sam didn’t even have a vote made him seem helpless. And who is going to waste a big early-mid merge vote on someone who isn’t very threatening?

Teeny recognized that they’ve been visibly left out of votes more than once and seems determined to make sure it doesn’t happen again. When you’ve got so many players trying to get themselves into the best possible position, being on the bottom or being left out of one round of votes can actually be an advantage. Teeny was in on the vote this time, and I think we’re going to see them being more and more involved as we move towards the endgame.

The tough part about all these players feeling like they’re on the bottom is that at Final Tribal Council, someone needs to own their game. If players are sitting there thinking they got dragged to the end, the jury will feel that. As the castaways jockey for position, whoever slays the dragon(s) - Genevieve? Andy? Teeny? - won’t have to work too hard to make their case that while they might have been on the bottom, they deserve to finish on top.

A lot of this feeling of being on the bottom or at the top is purely based on perception. The ideal position is running the game from the shadows, pretending to be out of the loop, and only having the jury start seeing the truth as they reach Ponderosa and as the game gets to Final Tribal Council. No one is playing that way this season, though, so we’re bound to see someone who once felt like they were in trouble walking away with the million.

Acute awareness of everyone’s threat level is a hallmark of how Survivors play in the new era. Everyone wants to make a move to pad their resumes but they’re also hunting anyone who has already made a move like that. Is it a feature or is it a bug? I think it’s still too soon but if this continues to be the trend we may see the best players being the ones who can thrive in a Medium Moves Era.

-Rob Cesternino

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