To win, Genevieve needs to get dirty

The Survivor Merge is finally here!

(Or did it already happen? That’s a conversation for a whole other post)

I was thinking about trying to rank the 12 players left in the game by their likelihood of winning but instead I am opting to devote this entire space to the player that I was going to have the hardest time ranking, Genevieve.

After Wednesday night, I couldn’t stop thinking about that striking image: Genevieve, pristine and composed, surrounded by mud-covered competitors. It's almost too perfect a metaphor for her gameplay so far. While others are getting their hands dirty with obvious scheming, Genevieve is playing a cleaner, more subtle game.

Genevieve found herself in this position after she found the advantage. As Stephen Fishbach said on the Know-It-Alls, "That moment with Genevieve and the buoy, I thought was so good because that is what makes a good Survivor player. It's that sense of, like, that nagging doubt that you pay attention to." We saw Genevieve demonstrate an ability to listen to her gut when she had the sudden about face to vote out Kishan after he used her name in the fake plan with Rome. Her extraordinary instincts have gotten her to this point in the game.

This week’s vote was an interesting inflection point in her game. One of Genevieve's formerly close allies, Rome, found himself in the crosshairs of the entire group. Now, you might think losing your main ally would be a disaster, but in Genevieve's case, it might be the best thing that could have happened to her game. There is a world where Rome was going to function as an anchor (and certainly not a buoy) to her prospects of moving forward. Genevieve opted to not put up a fight and risk alienating any of her potential future allies by working to save Rome.

So, where does Genevieve go from here? She certainly has her share of options but there isn’t an obvious path that I see for her to make it to the end of the game.

Genevieve hasn’t been on any of the journeys so far so the only remaining players that she has an existing relationship with are Teeny and Sol, and she hasn’t had a perfect relationship with either of them. Sol was crossed by Genevieve’s group on the Aysha vote and then Teeny was blindsided when Kishan got voted out. Genevieve put in the work to do damage control after each of those votes, but I don’t think that the Lavo three will be the driving force of the post-merge game. 

Of the three remaining Lavo members, it’s actually Teeny that has way more relationships in the game, from going on the journey with Caroline and Andy and also from being the sole Lavo member at the Survivor social hour. It would really behoove Genevieve to stay close with Teeny moving forward and to mooch off of some of those relationships. 

Genevieve still has a good relationship with Sol, who was thrilled to see Rome go out of the game. However, Sol is in the same boat as Genevieve, having no other social connections yet outside of Lavo. At times, Sol has been a powerhouse in the challenges, and he could be an easy target for another consensus vote which would not be ideal for Genevieve’s position.

The saving grace for Genevieve could come in the form of a burgeoning women’s alliance. We saw some discussion about the women working together at the Survivor social hour when Caroline was talking with Rachel and Teeny. Rachel was subsequently spurned by her tribe and might be looking to grab a spot in the women’s alliance - like it was loose rice at a challenge!

A women’s alliance would most likely want to target Sam and break up the not-so-hidden power duo of Sam and Sierra. After that Gabe, Sol, Kyle and Andy would all be targets that look juicer than Miss Peppers, the un-eaten chicken!

Genevieve would benefit greatly from this type of scenario coming together, where Caroline and Sue break away from some of the less reliable players on Tuku. We most recently saw some tension between Kyle and the Tuku women after Rome threw him under the bus. Genevieve could eventually find herself in a position where she might become one of the favorites for individual immunity every time out against the remaining women.  

This scenario of Genevieve emerging at the head of a women’s alliance conjures images of Kim Spradlin victoriously riding the women’s alliance to the end of Survivor: One World. Many fans have made allusions to Genevieve being the Kim Spradlin of the New Era, for both the aesthetic comparisons and the shrewd gameplay thus far, notably Survivor must-follow, Josh Kettles.

However, I’m worried for Genevieve that working with the women could end up being a bit of a Trojan (not a Troyzan) horse. Genevieve might get a proposal to work with the women with the catch being to help vote out the men, specifically her ally in Sol. 

For Caroline and Sue, THEY could be the ones to put themselves into the Kim Spradlin position. Kim was famous for wanting to have OPTIONS. She led Troyzan and Jay along with the idea that her group would keep voting with them once they took out all the men who weren’t in her alliance. Once Troyzan and Jay helped eliminate the likes of Jonas, Michael, and Lief, Kim decided it was her best option to keep going with her alliance of the women.

Caroline and Sue are part of the five original members of the Tuku tribe. This group of five wields the most power at the merge and the other players don’t seem to be talking about it much. The thought of the women’s alliance could be a very tempting option for Genevieve to start working with Rachel, Teeny, and the Tuku women but she could get a reverse-Spradlin if Tuku ultimately decides that sticking with their tribe is smarter than sticking with the women. 

I really don’t know what the best path for Genevieve could be moving forward. While she was quiet in the edit in the first three weeks, she seems to be a naturally gifted Survivor player who makes the social game seem effortless. With these types of abilities, she’ll certainly have an opportunity to build a group to go to battle with. 

The biggest obstacle that she’s going to face is how to disarm the Tuku tribe. For Genevieve, she needs to ensure that those five don’t end up sticking together if she’s going to have a shot to make noise in the second half of the game. Her best bet is working as Teeny’s wing-woman in the short term and hoping that there’s a group that’s ready to take on Tuku and maybe playing a little dirty.

-Rob Cesternino

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