Zach's Take on the Shot in The Dark

Zach was a contestant on Survivor 42

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Shot

At Ponderosa, I got to live out every superfan’s dream; I complained to production about how terrible their new twists were. The Beware Advantage? “This is so stupid. People will hate this.” The Hourglass? “This is legitimately the worst idea you have ever had.” The Shot in the Dark? “This is... wait, this is genius.”

As the first person ever to play it correctly, I consider myself the Shot in the Dark’s strongest soldier. In a sea of ridiculous gimmicks and unnecessary advantages, the Shot in the Dark stands as the best Survivor twist since the idol. I am ready to champion it like Tiffany at Final Tribal - no Swiftie lyrics or rocking out allowed. Let’s talk about how the Shot in the Dark has reinvented how the game is played.

STOP THE COUNT!

There has never been an advantage like the Shot in the Dark. Ever. Two qualities make it unprecedented: risk and distribution.

The Shot’s rules were explained to all players from day one (which is NOT common for a new twist, but it rocks! Shoot, sorry Tiff). Everybody gets one. When played, you have a ⅙ chance of drawing an immunity scroll. And of course, this play comes with a sacrifice: you play your shot, you lose your vote. Simple enough. So why is this awesome?

Most advantages involve risk to earn the power: win a prisoner’s dilemma, do a puzzle, collect some beads. Once you’ve won the advantage, the danger is gone. The only risk is wasting it. Meanwhile, the Shot’s drawback is inherent in its usage. You are deciding in real time to sacrifice your only agency at Tribal for a 1/6 chance at safety. This makes it one of the most underpowered advantages in Survivor history. That’s a good thing.

Let’s look at the latest person to use her Shot in the Dark: Mo Gaynor, eliminated in a landslide 10-1 vote. At 46’s Mergatory Tribal, she recognized that her vote meant nothing. The Shot in the Dark was her only way out, and she took it.

Compare that to 41’s Mergatory. After a chaotic, live Tribal, Sydney Segal made the call to play the Shot in the Dark for the first time in Survivor history - and was eliminated in a 5-4-3 vote. All she needed to make jury was the one, single vote she had just given up.

The Shot in the Dark is a high risk play that rewards players who understand the value of their vote, and punishes those who misread it. At one Tribal your vote could be the death blow, and at the next it could stay unread in the urn. You need to understand what your vote means to know when to sacrifice it.

EVEN ODDS

At its worst, Survivor can feel like a battle against the annoying kid at recess who always has a forcefield.

You won immunity? “Nuh uh, I went back in time and you lose now.”

You found an idol? “Actually production made a fake idol to trick you.”

You won the million dollars? “But did you pay your taxes?”

In Survivor, twists fail when there is no way to play around them. If someone plays an advantage that cannot be overcome or predicted, then that isn’t a move. It’s a scripted event.

That’s what I love about the Shot in the Dark: it’s an open hand advantage. Its distribution is even and trackable. You know for certain that your target has one, which means the onus is always on you to play around it.

Let’s look at 45’s superstar Harvard grad, J Maya. At Mergatory, she was a secondary target. She wasn’t getting a single vote at Tribal, but a successful Shot from Kaleb would spell doom. Worst case scenario happened. Up to this point, she is the only person to ever be eliminated by a successful Shot in the Dark. Was it unlucky? Absolutely. Was it unfair? Nope.

46’s Harvard grad, Charlie Davis, demonstrated this. He found himself in a similar spot. His name was out there, and Mo’s shot hitting could easily ricochet (Tiff, I swear that’s not a T.S. reference. It’s just the perfect word here). But Charlie made the counter play: he threw a contingency vote on Venus. Just like that, the bomb that blew up J’s game was defused.

Charlie threw a hinky vote. Kenzie crafted a fake idol. Carson convinced Helen her vote was the decider. Soda, Tevin, Hunter, Tiffany, and Venus were blindsided. There are so many ways to play around the Shot in the Dark, and you always know when your target has one. If you don’t want to make a counter-plan, cool. 5/6 times, you’ll be fine. But the best Survivor players always cover their bases, and the Shot in the Dark encourages players to play at their best. This is what a truly balanced, fun advantage looks like.

TEAM TV

I’ve explained what the Shot in the Dark adds to the game. Now let’s talk about what really matters: the show.

In spectator sports, interest wanes the second the result becomes certain. When a team is up 15-0, you change the channel. When a candidate is sweeping the swing states, you go to bed. When Jag wins HOH, you turn off the feeds.

Survivor is the same. A season lives and dies by its predictability. Think about the times you’ve chatted with friends during the commercial break before Tribal. “There’s no chance Laurel is flipping on Wendell. It’s going to be Purple Chelsea.” The votes are read… and you were right. What do you say as the final words play? “That was a boring episode.”

Production’s job is for you never to say that. They must imbue uncertainty into every episode, even when there is none. So what do they do when the writing is on the wall? Simple. They lie. They craft a fake alternative vote that was never going to happen, and use every clip they can find to make it seem plausible.

This still happens, obviously. It’s a reality show. Santa isn’t real. Neither is the Tooth Fairy. Neither is Sia. But with the Shot in the Dark, production is able to lie less often. The Shot provides a small yet plausible out for every player -  a Hail Mary. Production can build intrigue out of the very real threat of the Shot versus propping up a phony decoy. It gives them an excuse to be honest.

One more thing: when you play your Shot in the Dark, they can’t make it look like you were blindsided. Minor victories, huh?

HOW I LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND LOVE THE SHOT

The Shot in the Dark is brilliant. It’s the rare advantage that improves the game without lying to the players, and that improves the show without lying to the viewers. It’s a shining example of how gameplay can flourish when the players know the rules (and that’s not even getting into the Shot’s more inventive uses, like Matthew hiding his vote in 44 or Emily using it as a bartering item in 45).

If there’s one final-

Wha? Tiff, come on, I just have one more-

...ok.

-Zach

Zach Wurtenberger lives in LA and has been dubbed “the best Survivor tweeter” by past players Stephen Fishbach and Gabby Pascuzzi. Follow Zach on X.

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